Interactions between water use and labour migration in lower northeast Thailand. Context and use of a companion modelling methodology

Abstract : Erratic rainfall distribution and coarse textured soils create harsh biophysical conditions in lower northeast Thailand. Agricultural productivity is low and the region is the poorest of the kingdom. Small-scale rainfed lowland rice production is dominating land use and millions of farmers face water management problems during frequent drought and floods. Farmers use various strategies to mitigate ecological and economic risk. Labour migration could be seen as either a solution or a constraint depending on ones' point of view. Multi-agent systems (MAS) are used to explore interactions between ecological and social dynamics in complex systems by creating virtual societies sharing an environment and its resources. We will use MAS in a “companion modelling” (ComMod) approach to better understand and model stakeholders' decision-making processes regarding the management of land and water resources at the field, farm, and community sub-watershed levels. The communication presents the original agricultural features and dynamics of the Lam Dome Yai community in Ubon Ratchathani Province. Key farmers' decisionmaking processes regarding land & water use and labour migration are explained. Farm surveys and GIS are used to analyze spatial and temporal changes, and to define a suitable spatial interface for the future MAS model. The elicitation of decision-making processes at the household level is used to define agents' social behaviour to be represented in the model. The preliminary diagnostic survey shows that the impact of labour migrations on renewable resource management is more obvious than (limited) land use changes over the last decade