Climate change impact chains in tropical coastal areas

Abstract : Tropical coasts are highly vulnerable to climatic pressures, the future impacts of which are projected to propagate through the natural and human components of coastal systems. One single event (e.g., intense storm) or gradual changes (e.g., upland deforestation or sea-level rise) can have multiple direct and indirect impacts in coral reefs, seagrass meadows, mangroves and human settlements and can compromise the resilience of the whole system. Risks related to climate change are frequently examined in isolation through the assessment of a single economic sector or ecosystem. However, this approach may lead to the indirect impacts, mal-adaptation risks and feedback loops being overlooked. Alternatively, impact chain maps offer a way of illustrating the potential impacts of climate change in a holistic and systemic way. An impact chain represents how a pressure propagates through a system via direct and indirect impacts. This brief summarises the climate change impact chains in tropical coastal areas based on a literature review of 289 papers. Impact chains are presented for five climate-change-related pressures.
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http://hal.cirad.fr/cirad-01015722
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Emilia Pramova, Florie Chazarin, Bruno Locatelli, Michael Hoppe. Climate change impact chains in tropical coastal areas. 2013. ⟨cirad-01015722⟩

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