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Rapport (Rapport De Recherche) Année : 2014

Agricultural dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa: a 2050 outlook of the challenges of structural transformation

Dynamiques agricoles en Afrique subsaharienne : une perspective à 2050 des défis de la transformation structurelle

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Résumé

This study rests on Agribiom, a simple world food-balance model in calories connecting land use and agricultural production to biomass consumption in various forms (food, feed, biofuel, etc.). This tool is used to revisit and discuss the 2012 revision of the “World Agriculture Towards 2030/50” of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Conversion and aggregation into calories of country-wise and product-wise detailed FAO data in tonnes (demand, production and trade) for 2005-07 and 2050 help to synthesize the FAO projections and their assumptions for nine world regions, including Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the focus of this study. Our regional FAO-based scenarios in calories are then compared and discussed with Agribiom historical estimates from 1961 to 2007 in various fields (cultivated area, yield, net trade, population and food diet, other uses of food biomass). In the last section, we question three critical points that challenge the projection of SSA in the global food system: the population projections (total and active), the agricultural labour productivity, the widening gap of income between farm and non-farm jobs.
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Dates et versions

cirad-01113012 , version 1 (04-02-2015)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : cirad-01113012 , version 1

Citer

Bruno Dorin. Dynamiques agricoles en Afrique subsaharienne : une perspective à 2050 des défis de la transformation structurelle . [Rapport de recherche] Centre de Sciences Humaines (CSH). 2014, pp.52. ⟨cirad-01113012⟩
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