Modélisation des dynamiques de maladies foliaires de cultures pérennes tropicales à différentes échelles spatiales : cas de la cercosporiose noire du bananier

Abstract : This thesis concerns the modeling of the dynamics of foliar diseases of tropical perennial crops at different spatial scales. This modeling approach is applied to Black Sigatoka (or black leaf streak disease) of banana. It is to explore and determine the environmental and host resistance parameters influencing the spatiotemporal dynamics of the disease and to provide elements related to control of the disease. Two models have been developed within the framework of this thesis. The dynamic at the plant scale is described by two mechanistic modules, a plant growth sub-module and an epidemiological sub-module describing the pathogen epidemic cycle. The model was validated by an independent data set. Numerical experiments and model sensitivity analysis performed by the methods of Morris and e-FAST enabled to better understand the functioning of this epidemic disease and enabled the identification of three parameters that influence the severity of the disease: the lesion growth rate, the incubation period and the infection efficiency. Bayesian Inference has helped to refine the a priori information available about these three parameters. The model sensitivity analysis also identified the influence of two parameters related to plant growth: the number of leaves on a plant and the leaf emission rate. A spatiotemporal dynamic model of Black Leaf Streak Disease has been developed at a territory scale from surveys conducted in Martinique (FWI) during the period of invasion of the disease from September 2010 to May 2012. The model uses the theory of point processes to describe the dynamics of the disease. The data collected being censored, parameter inference was performed in a Bayesian framework using a MCMC data augmentation algorithm. The results highlight the impact of private gardens and plots of plantains in the invasive dynamics of black Sigatoka. The model and the inference allow reconstructing the spatiotemporal dynamics of the invasion depending on the coverage of the landscape. Both spatial and temporal dynamics models developed at two different spatial scales were used to acquire important information for building control tools of Black Sigatoka of banana.
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Clara Landry. Modélisation des dynamiques de maladies foliaires de cultures pérennes tropicales à différentes échelles spatiales : cas de la cercosporiose noire du bananier. Mathématiques [math]. Université des Antilles et de la Guyane, 2015. Français. ⟨tel-01172680⟩

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