C. Abadie, Y. Chilin-charles, J. Huat, F. Salmon, J. Pignolet et al., New approaches to select durable resistant varieties of banana against mycosphaerella leaf spot diseases, Acta Horticulturae, vol.828, pp.171-178, 2009.

C. Abadie, M. F. Zapater, L. Pignolet, J. Carlier, and X. Mourichon, Artificial inoculation on plants and banana leaf pieces with my- 600 cosphaerella spp., responsible for sigatoka leaf spot diseases. Fruits, pp.319-323, 2008.

A. Amil, S. Heaney, C. Stanger, and M. W. Shaw, Dynamics of qoi sensitivity in mycosphaerella fijiensis in costa rica during, 2000.

P. Arneson, A mechanistic computer simulation model of sigatoka, 1989.

E. Audsley, A. Milne, and N. Paveley, A foliar disease model for use in wheat disease management decision support systems, Annals of Applied Biology, vol.11, issue.2, pp.161-172, 2005.
DOI : 10.1046/j.1365-3059.2003.00848.x

F. Bakry, F. Careel, C. Jenny, and J. Horry, Breeding plant tree crop: tropical species. chapter Genetic improvement of banana, pp.3-50, 2009.

F. Van-den-berg, S. Gaucel, C. Lannou, C. A. Gilligan, and F. Van-den-bosch, High levels of auto-infection in plant pathogens favour short latent periods: a theoretical approach, Evolutionary Ecology, vol.18, issue.2, pp.409-428, 2013.
DOI : 10.1007/s10682-012-9602-2

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01190640

N. Brisson, H. Ozier-lafontaine, and M. Dorel, EFFECTS OF SOIL MANAGEMENT AND WATER REGIME ON BANANA GROWTH BETWEEN PLANTING AND FLOWERING. SIMULATION USING THE STICS MODEL, Acta Horticulturae, vol.490, issue.490, p.620, 1998.
DOI : 10.17660/ActaHortic.1998.490.23

P. J. Burt, L. J. Rosenberg, J. Rutter, F. Ramirez, O. Gonzales et al., Forecasting the airborne spread of Mycosphaerella fijiensis, a cause of black Sigatoka disease on banana: estimations of numbers of perithecia and ascospores, Annals of Applied Biology, vol.24, issue.1, pp.369-377, 1999.
DOI : 10.1094/Phyto-84-1037

P. J. Burt, J. Rutter, and F. Ramirez, Airborne spore loads 625 and mesoscale dispersal of the fungal pathogens causing sigatoka diseases in banana and plantain. Aerobiologia, pp.209-214, 1998.

A. Calonnec, P. Cartolaro, J. Naulin, D. Bailey, and M. Langlais, A host-pathogen simulation model: powdery mildew of grapevine, Plant Pathology, vol.4208, issue.11, pp.493-508, 2008.
DOI : 10.1094/PHYTO.1998.88.10.1000

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00269167

J. Carlier, X. Mourichon, and D. Jones, Diseases of banana, abaca and enset. chapter Black leaf streak: the causal agent, pp.630-678, 2000.

A. Gelman and D. Rubin, Inference from Iterative Simulation Using Multiple Sequences, Statistical Science, vol.7, issue.4, pp.457-511, 1992.
DOI : 10.1214/ss/1177011136

D. Gouache, A. Bensadoun, F. Brun, C. Pagé, D. Makowski et al., Modelling climate change impact on septoria tritici blotch (stb) in France: Accounting for climate model and disease model uncertainty Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2012.

B. Irish, R. Goenaga, C. Rios, J. Chavarria-carvajal, and R. Ploetz, Evaluation of banana hybrids for tolerance to black leaf streak (Mycosphaerella fijiensis Morelet) in Puerto Rico, Crop Protection, vol.54, pp.229-238, 2013.
DOI : 10.1016/j.cropro.2013.09.003

M. Jeger, ANALYSIS OF DISEASE PROGRESS AS A BASIS FOR EVALUATING DISEASE MANAGEMENT PRACTICES, Annual Review of Phytopathology, vol.42, issue.1, pp.61-82, 2004.
DOI : 10.1146/annurev.phyto.42.040803.140427

D. C. Jones, Diseases of banana, abaca and enset. CABI publishing Variation and selection of quantitative traits in plant pathogens, Annual Review of Phytopathology, vol.50, pp.319-338, 2000.

C. Lannou, S. Soubeyrand, L. Frezal, and J. Chaduf, Autoinfection in wheat leaf rust epidemics, New Phytologist, vol.5, issue.4, pp.1001-1011, 2008.
DOI : 10.1094/PHYTO.2004.94.8.883

A. Lassoudì-ere and A. , Le bananier et sa culture Le bananier, p.705, 2006.

L. Iacono, G. Van-den-bosch, F. Gilligan, and C. A. , Durable Resistance to Crop Pathogens: An Epidemiological Framework to Predict Risk under Uncertainty, PLoS Computational Biology, vol.104, issue.1, 2013.
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002870.s003

L. Pelzer, E. Bousset, L. Jeuffroy, M. Salam, M. Pinochet et al., Sippom-wosr: A simulator for integrated, 2010.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01173221

P. Tixier, E. Malezieux, and M. Dorel, SIMBA-POP: a cohort population model for long-term simulation of banana crop harvest, Ecological Modelling, vol.180, issue.2-3, pp.407-417, 2004.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.04.028

F. Wagner, B. Hérault, C. Stahl, D. Bonal, and V. Rossi, Modeling water availability for trees in tropical forests Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, pp.1202-1213, 2011.

D. Wallach, Evaluating crop models, pp.775-786, 2006.

L. Willocquet and S. Savary, An Epidemiological Simulation Model with Three Scales of Spatial Hierarchy, Phytopathology, vol.94, issue.8, pp.883-891, 2004.
DOI : 10.1094/PHYTO.2004.94.8.883

. Xu, Modelling and forecasting epidemics of apple powdery mildew (Podosphaera leucotricha), Plant Pathology, vol.44, issue.4, pp.462-471, 1999.
DOI : 10.1023/A:1008626206164

.. Modélisation-de-la-dynamique-d-contextes, invasion de la cercosporiose noire à l'échelle d'un territoire Sommaire 4, p.117

.. Inférence-sur-données-réelles, Article en préparation, p.148

P. Anderson, A. Cunningham, N. Patel, F. Morales, P. Epstein et al., Emerging infectious diseases of plants: pathogen pollution, climate change and agrotechnology drivers, Trends in Ecology & Evolution, vol.19, issue.10, pp.535-544, 2004.
DOI : 10.1016/j.tree.2004.07.021

J. Brown and M. Hovmoller, Aerial Dispersal of Pathogens on the Global and Continental Scales and Its Impact on Plant Disease, Science, vol.297, issue.5581, pp.537-541, 2002.
DOI : 10.1126/science.1072678

S. Catterall, A. Cook, G. Marion, A. Butler, and P. Hulme, Accounting for uncertainty in colonisation times: a novel approach to modelling the spatio-temporal dynamics of alien invasions using distribution data, Ecography, vol.106, issue.10, pp.901-911, 2012.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2011.07190.x

A. Churchill, Mycosphaerella fijiensis, the black leaf streak pathogen of banana: progress towards understanding pathogen biology and detection, disease development, and the challenges of control, Molecular Plant Pathology, vol.8, issue.4, pp.1-22, 2010.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1364-3703.2010.00672.x

N. Cressie, C. Wikle, V. Dloustau, M. Robin, C. Buee et al., Statistics for Spatio-Temporal Data An Introduction to the Theory of Point Processes The fungal dimension of biological invasions, Trends in Ecology & Evolution, vol.22, issue.9, pp.472-80, 2003.

M. Fisher, D. Henk, C. Briggs, J. Brownstein, L. Madoff et al., Emerging fungal threats to animal, plant and ecosystem health, Nature, vol.3, issue.7393, pp.186-194, 2012.
DOI : 10.1038/nature10947

J. Hoeting, M. Leecaster, and D. Bowden, An Improved Model for Spatially Correlated Binary Responses, Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics, vol.5, issue.1, pp.102-114, 2000.
DOI : 10.2307/1400634

R. Ioos, J. Hubert, C. Abadie, D. Duféal, G. Opdebeeck et al., on Martinique Island, Plant Disease, vol.95, issue.3, pp.359-359, 2011.
DOI : 10.1094/PDIS-11-10-0850

D. Jones, Diseases of banana, abaca and enset, pp.37-142, 2000.

D. Marin, R. Romero, M. Guzman, and T. Sutton, Black Sigatoka: An Increasing Threat to Banana Cultivation, Plant Disease, vol.87, issue.3, pp.208-222, 2003.
DOI : 10.1094/PDIS.2003.87.3.208

A. Marrel, B. Ioos, D. Veiga, S. Ribatet, and M. , Global sensitivity analysis of stochastic computer models with joint metamodels, Statistics and Computing, vol.44, issue.1, pp.833-847, 2012.
DOI : 10.1007/s11222-011-9274-8

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00232805

T. Mckinley, J. Ross, R. Deardon, and A. Cook, Simulation-based Bayesian inference for epidemic models, Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, vol.71, pp.434-447, 2014.
DOI : 10.1016/j.csda.2012.12.012

N. Mollentze, L. Nel, S. Townsend, K. Le-roux, K. Hampson et al., A Bayesian approach for inferring the dynamics of partially observed endemic infectious diseases from space-time-genetic data, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B, 1782.
DOI : 10.1002/sim.4780140809

M. Morelli, G. Thébaud, J. Chadoeuf, D. King, D. Haydon et al., A Bayesian Inference Framework to Reconstruct Transmission Trees Using Epidemiological and Genetic Data, PLoS Computational Biology, vol.52, issue.11, 2012.
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002768.s023

E. Pennisi, Armed and dangerous, Science, vol.327, issue.5967, pp.804-809, 2010.

A. Rieux, S. Soubeyrand, F. Bonnot, E. Klein, J. Ngando et al., Long-distance wind-dispersal of spores in a fungal plant pathogen: estimation of anisotropic dispersal kernels from an extensive field experiment Monte Carlo Statistical Methods. second ed Contrasting introduction scenarios among continents in the worldwide invasion of the banana fungal pathogen mycosphaerella fijiensis, Plos One Robert C, Casella G Molecular Ecology, pp.11-12, 2010.

A. Saltelli, S. Tarantola, and K. Chan, A Quantitative Model-Independent Method for Global Sensitivity Analysis of Model Output, Technometrics, vol.60, issue.1, pp.39-56, 1999.
DOI : 10.1007/BF01166355

A. Saltelli, S. Tarantola, F. Campolongo, and M. Ratto, Sensitivity Analysis in Practice. A Guide to Assessing Scientific Models Stochastic modelling of ecological processesusing hybrid gibbs samplers, Ecological Modelling, vol.198, pp.40-52, 2004.

C. Abadie, Y. Chilin-charles, J. Huat, F. Salmon, J. Pignolet et al., New approaches to select durable resistant varieties of banana against mycosphaerella leaf spot diseases, Acta Horticulturae, vol.828, issue.86, pp.171-178, 2009.

C. Abadie, A. Hadrami, E. Fouré, and J. Carlier, Efficiency and durability of partial resistance components of bananas against black leaf streak disease, 2th workshop on Mycosphaerella leaf spot diseases of bananas : present status and outlook, pp.317-109, 2003.

A. Amil, S. Heaney, C. Stanger, and M. W. Shaw, Dynamics of QoI sensitivity in Mycosphaerella fijiensis in Costa Rica during, Phytopathology, vol.17, issue.118, p.162, 2000.

P. K. Anderson, A. A. Cunningham, N. G. Patel, F. J. Morales, P. R. Epstein et al., Emerging infectious diseases of plants: pathogen pollution, climate change and agrotechnology drivers, Trends in Ecology & Evolution, vol.19, issue.10, pp.19535-544, 2004.
DOI : 10.1016/j.tree.2004.07.021

P. Arneson, A mechanistic computer simulation model of sigatoka, Sigatoka leaf spot diseases of bananas, 1989.

E. Audsley, A. Milne, and N. Paveley, A foliar disease model for use in wheat disease management decision support systems, Annals of Applied Biology, vol.11, issue.2, pp.161-172, 2005.
DOI : 10.1046/j.1365-3059.2003.00848.x

F. Austerlitz, C. W. Dick, C. , D. Klein, E. K. Oddou-muratorio et al., Using genetic markers to estimate the pollen dispersal curve, Molecular Ecology, vol.15, issue.4, pp.937-954, 2004.
DOI : 10.1017/S0016672300004833

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00531068

D. Aylor, Biophysical scaling and the passive dispersal of fungus spores: relationship to integrated pest management strategies, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, vol.97, issue.4, pp.275-292, 1999.
DOI : 10.1016/S0168-1923(99)00072-6

D. Aylor, SPREAD OF PLANT DISEASE ON A CONTINENTAL SCALE: ROLE OF AERIAL DISPERSAL OF PATHOGENS, Ecology, vol.84, issue.8, pp.1989-1997, 2003.
DOI : 10.1094/PHYTO.1999.89.6.495

J. Brown and M. Hovmøller, Aerial Dispersal of Pathogens on the Global and Continental Scales and Its Impact on Plant Disease, Science, vol.297, issue.5581, pp.537-541, 2002.
DOI : 10.1126/science.1072678

P. E. Brown, F. Chimard, A. Remorov, J. S. Rosenthal, W. et al., Statistical inference and computational efficiency for spatial infectious disease models with plantation data, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), vol.71, issue.3, p.165, 2013.
DOI : 10.1111/rssc.12036

P. J. Burt, L. J. Rosenberg, J. Rutter, F. Ramirez, O. Gonzales et al., Forecasting the airborne spread of Mycosphaerella fijiensis, a cause of black Sigatoka disease on banana: estimations of numbers of perithecia and ascospores, Annals of Applied Biology, vol.24, issue.1, pp.369-377, 1999.
DOI : 10.1094/Phyto-84-1037

P. J. Burt, J. Rutter, and F. Ramirez, Airborne spore loads and mesoscale dispersal of the fungal pathogens causing Sigatoka diseases in banana and plantain, Aerobiologia, vol.60, issue.2-3, pp.209-214, 1998.
DOI : 10.1007/BF02694208

A. Calonnec, P. Cartolaro, J. Naulin, D. Bailey, and M. Langlais, A host-pathogen simulation model: powdery mildew of grapevine, Plant Pathology, vol.4208, issue.11, pp.493-508, 2008.
DOI : 10.1094/PHYTO.1998.88.10.1000

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00269167

F. Campolongo, J. Cariboni, and A. Saltelli, An effective screening design for sensitivity analysis of large models, Environmental Modelling & Software, vol.22, issue.10, pp.1509-1518, 2007.
DOI : 10.1016/j.envsoft.2006.10.004

J. Carlier, D. De-waele, J. Escalant, A. Vézina, and C. Picq, Global evaluation of musa germplasm for resistance to fusarium wilt, mycosphaerella leaf spot diseases and nematodes : in-depth evaluation, p.88, 2002.

J. Carlier, M. H. Lebrun, M. F. Zapater, C. Dubois, and X. Mourichon, Genetic structure of the global population of banana black leaf streak fungus, Mycosphaerella fijiensis, Molecular Ecology, vol.15, issue.4, pp.499-510, 1996.
DOI : 10.2307/2408641

J. Carlier, X. Mourichon, and D. Jones, Diseases of Banana, Abaca and Enset, chapter Black leaf streak : the causal agent, pp.48-56, 2000.

P. Casadebaig, G. Quesnel, M. Langlais, and R. Faivre, A Generic Model to Simulate Air-Borne Diseases as a Function of Crop Architecture, PLoS ONE, vol.104, issue.11, pp.1-11, 2012.
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pone.0049406.t002

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00771939

F. Castelan, C. Abadie, O. Hubert, Y. Chilin-charles, L. De-lapeyre-de-bellaire et al., Relation between the severity of Sigatoka disease and banana quality characterized by pomological traits and fruit green life, Crop Protection, vol.50, issue.0, pp.5061-65, 2013.
DOI : 10.1016/j.cropro.2013.02.019

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01193211

F. Castelan, L. Saraiva, F. Lange, L. De-lapeyre-de-bellaire, B. Cordenunsi et al., Effects of Black Leaf Streak Disease and Sigatoka Disease on fruit quality and maturation process of bananas produced in the subtropical conditions of southern Brazil, Crop Protection, vol.35, issue.0, pp.35127-131, 2012.
DOI : 10.1016/j.cropro.2011.08.002

S. Catterall, A. R. Cook, G. Marion, A. Butler, and P. E. Hulme, Accounting for uncertainty in colonisation times: a novel approach to modelling the spatio-temporal dynamics of alien invasions using distribution data, Ecography, vol.106, issue.10, pp.35901-911, 2012.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2011.07190.x

J. Caubel, Modélisation dynamique et générique de pathosystèmes fongiques aériens Application à l'étude des impacts du changement climatique sur la rouille brune du blé et le mildiou de la vigne, p.109, 2012.

J. Caubel, M. Launay, C. Lannou, and N. Brisson, Generic response functions to simulate climate-based processes in models for the development of airborne fungal crop pathogens, Ecological Modelling, vol.242, issue.0, pp.24292-104, 2012.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.05.012

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01019434

M. Chillet, F. Castelan, C. Abadie, O. Hubert, D. Lapeyre-de-bellaire et al., Necrotic leaf removal, a key component of integrated management of Mycospaerella leaf spot diseases to improve the quality of banana : the case of sigatoka disease. Fruits, pp.271-277, 2013.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01193204

A. Churchill, Mycosphaerella fijiensis, the black leaf streak pathogen of banana: progress towards understanding pathogen biology and detection, disease development, and the challenges of control, Molecular Plant Pathology, vol.8, issue.4, pp.307-328, 2011.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1364-3703.2010.00672.x

C. Ciric, P. Ciffroy, C. , and S. , Use of sensitivity analysis to identify influential and non-influential parameters within an aquatic ecosystem model, Ecological Modelling, vol.246, pp.119-130, 2012.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.06.024

J. Clark, Why environmental scientists are becoming Bayesians, Ecology Letters, vol.96, issue.1, pp.2-14, 2005.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2004.00702.x

R. Confalonieri, G. Bellocchi, S. Bregaglio, M. Donatelli, and M. Acutis, Comparison of sensitivity analysis techniques: A case study with the rice model WARM, Ecological Modelling, vol.221, issue.16, pp.2211897-1906, 2010.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.04.021

R. Confalonieri, G. Bellocchi, S. Tarantola, M. Acutis, M. Donatelli et al., Sensitivity analysis of the rice model WARM in Europe: Exploring the effects of different locations, climates and methods of analysis on model sensitivity to crop parameters, Environmental Modelling & Software, vol.25, issue.4, pp.479-488
DOI : 10.1016/j.envsoft.2009.10.005

A. Cook, G. Marion, A. Butler, and G. Gibson, Bayesian Inference for the Spatio-Temporal Invasion of Alien Species, Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, vol.16, issue.Suppl. 1, pp.2005-2025, 2007.
DOI : 10.1007/s11538-007-9202-4

E. Costes, P. E. Lauri, S. Simon, and B. Andrieu, Plant architecture, its diversity and manipulation in agronomic conditions, in relation with pest and pathogen attacks, European Journal of Plant Pathology, vol.77, issue.3, 2013.
DOI : 10.1007/s10658-012-0158-3

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01001342

K. Craenen and R. Ortiz, Influence of black Sigatoka disease on the growth and yield of diploid and tetraploid hybrid plantains, Crop Protection, vol.17, issue.1, pp.13-18, 1998.
DOI : 10.1016/S0261-2194(98)80007-0

N. Cressie and C. Wikle, Statistics for Spatio-Temporal Data, p.133, 2011.

N. J. Cunniffe and C. A. Gilligan, Invasion, persistence and control in epidemic models for plant pathogens: the effect of host demography, Journal of The Royal Society Interface, vol.32, issue.8, pp.439-451, 2010.
DOI : 10.1007/BF00168799

D. Daley, V. , and D. , An Introduction to the Theory of Point Processes, p.164, 2003.

D. Lapeyre-de-bellaire, L. Fouré, E. Abadie, C. Carlier, and J. , Black Leaf Streak Disease is challenging the banana industry, Fruits, vol.65, issue.6, pp.65327-342, 2010.
DOI : 10.1051/fruits/2010034

D. Wolf, E. D. Isard, and S. A. , Disease Cycle Approach to Plant Disease Prediction, Annual Review of Phytopathology, vol.45, issue.1, pp.203-220, 2007.
DOI : 10.1146/annurev.phyto.44.070505.143329

C. K. Dejonge, I. Ascough, C. J. Ahmadi, M. Andales, A. A. Arabi et al., Global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of a dynamic agroecosystem model under different irrigation treatments, Ecological Modelling, vol.231, issue.85, pp.113-125, 2012.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.01.024

P. Diggle, Spatio-temporal point processes, partial likelihood, foot and mouth disease, Statistical Methods in Medical Research, vol.19, issue.4, pp.325-336, 2006.
DOI : 10.1191/0962280206sm454oa

J. Drouet, N. Capian, J. Fiorelli, V. Blanfort, M. Capitaine et al., Sensitivity analysis for models of greenhouse gas emissions at farm level, Case study of n 2 o emissions simulated by the CERES-EGC model. Enviromental Pollution, pp.3156-3161, 2011.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01000148

H. Eikemo, D. Gadoury, O. Villalta, P. Creemers, R. C. Seem et al., Evaluation of six models to estimate ascospore maturation in Venturia pyrina, Plant Disease, issue.3, pp.95279-284, 2011.

F. Fabre, C. Bruchou, A. Palloix, and B. Moury, Key determinants of resistance durability to plant viruses: Insights from a model linking within- and between-host dynamics, Virus Research, vol.141, issue.2, pp.140-149, 2009.
DOI : 10.1016/j.virusres.2008.11.021

B. Facon and P. David, Metapopulation Dynamics and Biological Invasions: A Spatially Explicit Model Applied to a Freshwater Snail, The American Naturalist, vol.168, issue.6, pp.769-783, 2006.
DOI : 10.1086/508669

R. Faivre, B. Ioos, S. Mahévas, D. Makowski, and H. Monod, Analyse de sensibilité et exploration de modèles. Application aux sciences de la nature et de l'environnement. Quae Editions, p.92, 2013.

R. M. Fewster, A Spatiotemporal Stochastic Process Model for Species Spread, Biometrics, vol.84, issue.3, pp.640-649, 2003.
DOI : 10.1111/1541-0420.00074

J. Filipe and M. Maule, Effects of dispersal mechanisms on spatio-temporal development of epidemics, Journal of Theoretical Biology, vol.226, issue.2, pp.125-141, 2004.
DOI : 10.1016/S0022-5193(03)00278-9

J. Filipe, W. Otten, G. Gibson, G. , and C. , Inferring the dynamics of a spatial epidemic from time-series data, Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, vol.66, issue.2, pp.373-391, 2004.
DOI : 10.1016/j.bulm.2003.09.002

M. C. Fisher, D. A. Henk, C. J. Briggs, J. S. Brownstein, L. C. Madoff et al., Emerging fungal threats to animal, plant and ecosystem health, Nature, vol.3, issue.7393, pp.484186-194, 2012.
DOI : 10.1038/nature10947

URL : http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3821985

M. Fortin, B. Boots, F. Csillag, and T. Remmel, On the role of spatial stochastic models in understanding landscape indices in ecology, Oikos, vol.102, issue.1, pp.203-212, 2003.
DOI : 10.1034/j.1600-0706.2003.12447.x

M. P. Fortune, S. Gosine, S. Chow, A. Dilbar, A. St-hill et al., First report of black sigatoka disease (causal agent Mycosphaerella fijiensis) from Trinidad, Plant Pathology, vol.54, issue.2, pp.246-246, 2005.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1365-3059.2005.01123.x

E. Fouré, Les cercosporioses du bananier et leurs traitements. comportement des variétés. etude de la sensibilité variétale des bananiers et plantain à mycosphaerella fijiensis morelet au Gabon (maladie des raies noires). Fruits, pp.37749-766, 1982.

E. Fouré, M. Grisoni, and R. Zurfluh, Les cercosporioses du bananier et leurs traitements, pp.365-378, 1984.

E. Fouré, X. Mourichon, and D. Jones, Diseases of Banana, abaca and Enset. Evaluating germplasm for reaction to black leaf streak, pp.62-72, 2000.

L. Frezal, C. Robert, M. Bancal, and C. Lannou, and Wheat Canopy Structure, Phytopathology, vol.99, issue.10, pp.1216-1224, 2009.
DOI : 10.1094/PHYTO-99-10-1216

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01192193

R. A. Fullerton and T. Olsen, Morelet, cause of black Sigatoka in banana and plantain, New Zealand Journal of Crop and Horticultural Science, vol.45, issue.1, pp.39-48, 1995.
DOI : 10.1080/01140671.1995.9513866

F. Gauhl, Epidemiology and Ecology of Black Sigatoka (Mycosphaerella fijiensis Morelet) on Plantain and Banana (Musa spp.) in Costa Rica, p.91, 1994.

A. Gelman, J. Carlin, H. Stern, R. , and D. , Bayesian data analysis, p.137, 2004.

A. Gelman and D. Rubin, Inference from Iterative Simulation Using Multiple Sequences, Statistical Science, vol.7, issue.4, pp.457-511, 1992.
DOI : 10.1214/ss/1177011136

G. Gibson, Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for Fitting Spatiotemporal Stochastic Models in Plant Epidemiology, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), vol.46, issue.2, pp.215-233, 1997.
DOI : 10.1111/1467-9876.00061

G. Gibson, G. Streftaris, Z. , and S. , Generalised data augmentation and posterior inferences, Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, vol.141, issue.1, pp.156-171, 2010.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jspi.2010.05.025

C. A. Gilligan, Sustainable agriculture and plant diseases: an epidemiological perspective, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, vol.406, issue.6797, pp.741-759, 1492.
DOI : 10.1038/35021046

URL : http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2610107

F. Hartig, J. Calabrese, B. Reineking, T. Wiegand, and A. Huth, Statistical inference for stochastic simulation models - theory and application, Ecology Letters, vol.119, issue.8, pp.816-827, 2011.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01640.x

A. Hastings, K. Cuddington, K. F. Davies, C. J. Dugaw, S. Elmendorf et al., The spatial spread of invasions: new developments in theory and evidence, Ecology Letters, vol.16, issue.1, pp.91-101, 2005.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2004.00687.x

J. Henderson, J. Pattemore, S. Porchun, H. Hayden, S. Van-brunschot et al., Black Sigatoka disease: new technologies to strengthen eradication strategies in Australia, Australasian Plant Pathology, vol.8, issue.2, pp.181-193, 2006.
DOI : 10.1071/AP06017

M. Höhle, E. Jorgensen, O. Neill, and P. D. , Inference in disease transmission experiments by using stochastic epidemic models, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), vol.22, issue.2, pp.349-366, 2005.
DOI : 10.1098/rspb.2004.2715

R. Ioos, J. Hubert, C. Abadie, D. Duféal, G. Opdebeeck et al., on Martinique Island, Plant Disease, vol.95, issue.3, pp.359-359, 2011.
DOI : 10.1094/PDIS-11-10-0850

B. Iooss, Review of global sensitivity analysis of numerical models Journal de la Société Française de Statistique, p.111, 2010.

B. Irish, R. Goenaga, C. Rios, J. Chavarria-carvajal, and R. Ploetz, Evaluation of banana hybrids for tolerance to black leaf streak (Mycosphaerella fijiensis Morelet) in Puerto Rico, Crop Protection, vol.54, issue.89, pp.229-238, 2013.
DOI : 10.1016/j.cropro.2013.09.003

M. Jeger, ANALYSIS OF DISEASE PROGRESS AS A BASIS FOR EVALUATING DISEASE MANAGEMENT PRACTICES, Annual Review of Phytopathology, vol.42, issue.1, 2004.
DOI : 10.1146/annurev.phyto.42.040803.140427

D. Jones, Diseases of banana, abaca and enset. CABI publishing, pp.91-117, 2000.

M. Lamboni, D. Makowski, S. Lehuger, B. Gabrielle, and H. Monod, Multivariate global sensitivity analysis for dynamic crop models, Field Crops Research, vol.113, issue.3, pp.312-320, 2009.
DOI : 10.1016/j.fcr.2009.06.007

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01173193

C. Lannou, S. Soubeyrand, L. Frezal, and J. Chadå-"-uf, Autoinfection in wheat leaf rust epidemics, New Phytologist, vol.5, issue.4, pp.1001-1011, 2008.
DOI : 10.1094/PHYTO.2004.94.8.883

A. Lassoudière, Le bananier et sa culture, Editions Quae, vol.18, issue.70, pp.71-89, 2006.

A. Lassoudière, Le bananier, Un siècle d'innovations techniques. Editions Quae, p.90, 2012.

M. Leclerc, T. Dorã©, C. A. Gilligan, P. Lucas, F. et al., Estimating the Delay between Host Infection and Disease (Incubation Period) and Assessing Its Significance to the Epidemiology of Plant Diseases, PLoS ONE, vol.26, issue.1, pp.1-15, 2014.
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pone.0086568.s003

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01173303

L. Pelzer, E. Aubertot, J. Bousset, L. Salam, M. Jeuffroy et al., SIPPOM-WOSR: A Simulator for Integrated Pathogen POpulation Management of phoma stem canker on Winter OilSeed Rape, Field Crops Research, vol.118, issue.1, pp.82-93
DOI : 10.1016/j.fcr.2010.04.006

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01173221

L. Pelzer, E. Bousset, L. Jeuffroy, M. Salam, M. Pinochet et al., SIPPOM-WOSR: A Simulator for Integrated Pathogen POpulation Management of phoma stem canker on Winter OilSeed Rape, Field Crops Research, vol.118, issue.1, pp.73-81, 2010.
DOI : 10.1016/j.fcr.2010.04.007

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01173221

J. A. Long, C. Robertson, F. S. Nathoo, N. , and T. A. , A Bayesian space???time model for discrete spread processes on a lattice, Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology, vol.3, issue.2, pp.151-162, 2012.
DOI : 10.1016/j.sste.2012.04.008

A. Lurette, S. Touzeau, M. Lamboni, and H. Monod, Sensitivity analysis to identify key parameters influencing Salmonella infection dynamics in a pig batch, Journal of Theoretical Biology, vol.258, issue.1, pp.43-52, 2009.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jtbi.2009.01.026

D. Makowski, J. Hillier, D. Wallach, B. Andrieu, and M. Jeuffroy, Parameter estimation for crop models, pp.101-149, 2006.

D. Makowski, C. Naud, M. Jeuffroy, A. Barbottin, and H. Monod, Global sensitivity analysis for calculating the contribution of genetic parameters to the variance of crop model prediction, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, vol.91, issue.10-11, pp.1142-1147, 2006.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ress.2005.11.015

D. H. Marin, R. A. Romero, M. Guzman, and T. B. Sutton, Black Sigatoka: An Increasing Threat to Banana Cultivation, Plant Disease, vol.87, issue.3, pp.208-222, 2003.
DOI : 10.1094/PDIS.2003.87.3.208

A. Marrel, B. Ioos, S. Da-veiga, and M. Ribatet, Global sensitivity analysis of stochastic computer models with joint metamodels, Statistics and Computing, vol.44, issue.1, pp.833-847, 2012.
DOI : 10.1007/s11222-011-9274-8

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00232805

L. Matthews and D. Haydon, Introduction. Cross-scale influences on epidemiological dynamics: from genes to ecosystems, Journal of The Royal Society Interface, vol.4, issue.16, pp.763-765, 2007.
DOI : 10.1098/rsif.2007.1104

T. J. Mckinley, J. V. Ross, R. Deardon, and A. R. Cook, Simulation-based Bayesian inference for epidemic models, Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, vol.71, issue.0, pp.71434-447, 2014.
DOI : 10.1016/j.csda.2012.12.012

R. K. Meentemeyer, N. J. Cunniffe, A. R. Cook, J. A. Filipe, R. D. Hunter et al., Epidemiological modeling of invasion in heterogeneous landscapes : spread of sudden oak death in california, Ecosphere, vol.2, issue.120, p.166, 1990.

A. Milne, N. Paveley, E. Audsley, and P. Livermore, A wheat canopy model for use in disease management decision support systems, Annals of Applied Biology, vol.102, issue.3, pp.265-274, 2003.
DOI : 10.1017/S002185969700484X

K. Mobambo, F. Gauhl, C. Pasberg-gauhl, and K. Zuofa, Season and plant age effect evaluation of plantain for response to black sigatoka disease, Crop Protection, vol.15, issue.7, pp.609-614, 1996.
DOI : 10.1016/0261-2194(95)00144-1

K. Mobambo, F. Gauhl, D. Vuylsteke, R. Ortiz, C. Pasberg-gauhl et al., Yield loss in plant from black sigatoka leaf spot and field performance of resistant hybrids. Field Crops Researchs, pp.35-42, 1993.

K. Mobambo, K. Zuofa, F. Gauhl, O. Adeniji, and C. Paseberg-gauhl, spp., AAB group) under traditional farming systems in Southeastern Nigeria, International Journal of Pest Management, vol.7, issue.1, pp.75-80, 1994.
DOI : 10.1016/0378-4290(93)90134-9

H. Monod, C. Naud, and D. Makowski, Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for crop models, pp.55-111, 2006.

D. J. Morris, D. C. Speirs, A. I. Cameron, and M. R. Heath, Global sensitivity analysis of an end-to-end marine ecosystem model of the North Sea: Factors affecting the biomass of fish and benthos, Ecological Modelling, vol.273, pp.251-263, 2014.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.11.019

M. D. Morris, Factorial Sampling Plans for Preliminary Computational Experiments, Technometrics, vol.1, issue.2, pp.162-174, 1991.
DOI : 10.2307/1266468

C. Mundt, Importance of Autoinfection to the Epidemiology of Polycyclic Foliar Disease, Phytopathology, vol.99, issue.10, pp.991116-1120, 2009.
DOI : 10.1094/PHYTO-99-10-1116

C. Mundt and K. Sackett, Spatial scaling relationship for spread of disease caused by a winddispersed plant pathogen, Ecosphere, vol.3, issue.3, p.128, 2012.

C. Mundt, K. Sackett, W. , and L. , Landscape heterogeneity and disease spread: experimental approaches with a plant pathogen, Ecological Applications, vol.52, issue.2, pp.321-328, 2011.
DOI : 10.1016/S0065-2113(08)00205-8

F. M. Neri, A. Bates, W. S. Fuchtbauer, F. J. Perez-reche, S. N. Taraskin et al., The Effect of Heterogeneity on Invasion in Spatial Epidemics: From Theory to Experimental Evidence in a Model System, PLoS Computational Biology, vol.19, issue.9, p.119, 2011.
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002174.s004

P. Noupadja, K. Tomekpe, Y. , and E. , Évaluation d'hybrides tétraploïdes de bananiers plantains (musa spp.) résistants à la maladie des raies noires créés au cameroun. Fruits, pp.77-88, 2007.

O. 'hara, R. B. Arjas, E. Toivonen, H. Hanski, and I. , BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF METAPOPULATION DATA, Ecology, vol.83, issue.9, pp.2408-2415, 2002.
DOI : 10.1126/science.273.5281.1536

O. Neill and P. , A tutorial introduction to bayesian inference for stochastic epidemics models using Markov chain mote carlo methods, Mathematical Biosciences, vol.180, pp.103-114, 2002.

R. S. Ostfeld, G. E. Glass, and F. Keesing, Spatial epidemiology: an emerging (or re-emerging) discipline, Trends in Ecology & Evolution, vol.20, issue.6, pp.328-336, 2005.
DOI : 10.1016/j.tree.2005.03.009

J. Papaïx, Structure du paysage agricole et risque épidemique, une approche démo-génétique, 2011.

J. Papaïx, H. Goyeau, P. Du-cheyron, H. Monod, and C. Lannou, Influence of cultivated landscape composition on variety resistance: an assessment based on wheat leaf rust epidemics, New Phytologist, vol.406, issue.4, p.173, 2011.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1469-8137.2011.03764.x

E. Parent and J. Bernier, Le raisonnement bayésien. Modélisation et inférence, 2007.

S. Parnell, T. R. Gottwald, W. Gilks, and F. Van-den-bosch, Estimating the incidence of an epidemic when it is first discovered and the design of early detection monitoring, Journal of Theoretical Biology, vol.305, issue.163, pp.30-36, 2012.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jtbi.2012.03.009

S. Parnell, T. R. Gottwald, C. A. Gilligan, N. J. Cunniffe, and F. Van-den-bosch, The Effect of Landscape Pattern on the Optimal Eradication Zone of an Invading Epidemic, Phytopathology, vol.100, issue.7, pp.638-644, 2010.
DOI : 10.1094/PHYTO-100-7-0638

S. Parnell, T. R. Gottwald, T. Riley, and F. Van-den-bosch, A generic risk-based surveying method for invading plant pathogens, Ecological Applications, vol.24, issue.4, pp.779-790, 2013.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1472-4642.2011.00874.x

M. Plantegenest, L. May, C. Fabre, and F. , Landscape epidemiology of plant diseases, Journal of The Royal Society Interface, vol.406, issue.6797, pp.963-972, 2007.
DOI : 10.1038/35021046

R. Development and C. Team, R : A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, p.143, 2008.

J. G. Rasmussen, J. Møller, B. H. Aukema, K. F. Raffa, and J. Zhu, Continuous time modelling of dynamical spatial lattice data observed at sparsely distributed times, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), vol.6, issue.4, pp.701-713, 2007.
DOI : 10.1146/annurev.en.27.010182.002211

L. A. Real and R. Biek, Spatial dynamics and genetics of infectious diseases on heterogeneous landscapes, Journal of The Royal Society Interface, vol.32, issue.4, pp.935-948, 2007.
DOI : 10.1534/genetics.106.062851

G. Richter, M. Acutis, P. Trevisiol, K. Latiri, C. et al., Sensitivity analysis for a complex crop model applied to Durum wheat in the Mediterranean, European Journal of Agronomy, vol.32, issue.2, pp.127-136, 2010.
DOI : 10.1016/j.eja.2009.09.002

A. Rieux, Etude des processus de dispersion et des flux géniques chez un champignon pytopathogène : le cas de Mycosphaerella fijiensis à l'échelle d'un bassin de production Camerounais, p.16, 2011.

A. Rieux, T. Lenormand, J. Carlier, L. De-lapeyre-de-bellaire, R. et al., Using neutral cline decay to estimate contemporary dispersal: a generic tool and its application to a major crop pathogen, Ecology Letters, vol.8, issue.6, pp.721-730, 2013.
DOI : 10.1111/ele.12090

A. Rieux, S. Soubeyrand, F. Bonnot, E. K. Klein, J. E. Ngando et al., Long-Distance Wind-Dispersal of Spores in a Fungal Plant Pathogen: Estimation of Anisotropic Dispersal Kernels from an Extensive Field Experiment, PLoS ONE, vol.19, issue.8, p.174, 2014.
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pone.0103225.s003

C. Robert and G. Casella, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, p.134, 2010.

S. Robert, V. Ravigné, M. Zapater, C. Abadie, and J. Carlier, Contrasting introduction scenarios among continents in the worldwide invasion of the banana fungal pathogen mycosphaerella fijiensis, Molecular Ecology, vol.18, pp.11-12, 2012.

J. Robinson, Bananas and Plantains. CAB International, p.90, 2003.

O. Ronce, How Does It Feel to Be Like a Rolling Stone? Ten Questions About Dispersal Evolution, Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, vol.38, issue.1, pp.231-253, 2007.
DOI : 10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.38.091206.095611

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/halsde-00299463

J. Ross, Invasion of infectious diseases in finite homogeneous populations, Journal of Theoretical Biology, vol.289, issue.8, pp.83-89, 2011.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.08.035

V. Rossi, T. Caffi, S. Giosuè, and R. Bugiani, A mechanistic model simulating primary infections of downy mildew in grapevine, Ecological Modelling, vol.212, issue.3-4, pp.480-491, 2008.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.10.046

J. Rutter, P. J. Burt, and F. Ramirez, Movement ofMycosphaerella fijiensis spores and sigatoka disease development on plantain close to an inoculum source, Aerobiologia, vol.73, issue.2-3, pp.201-208, 1998.
DOI : 10.1007/BF02694207

A. Saltelli, M. Ratto, S. Tarantola, F. Campolongo, E. Commission et al., Sensitivity analysis practices: Strategies for model-based inference, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, vol.91, issue.10-11, pp.1109-1125, 2006.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ress.2005.11.014

A. Saltelli, S. Tarantola, C. , and K. , A Quantitative Model-Independent Method for Global Sensitivity Analysis of Model Output, Technometrics, vol.60, issue.1, pp.39-56, 1999.
DOI : 10.1007/BF01166355

N. Sapoukhina, C. Durel, L. Cam, and B. , Spatial deployment of gene-for-gene resistance governs evolution and spread of pathogen populations, Theoretical Ecology, vol.406, issue.4, pp.229-238, 2009.
DOI : 10.1007/s12080-009-0045-5

S. J. Schreiber and J. Lloyd-smith, Invasion Dynamics in Spatially Heterogeneous Environments, The American Naturalist, vol.174, issue.4, pp.490-505, 2009.
DOI : 10.1086/605405

F. M. Schurr, O. Steinitz, N. , and R. , Plant fecundity and seed dispersal in spatially heterogeneous environments: models, mechanisms and estimation, Journal of Ecology, vol.3, issue.4, pp.628-641, 2008.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1365-2745.2008.01371.x

X. Song, B. A. Bryan, A. C. Almeida, K. I. Paul, G. Zhao et al., Time-dependent sensitivity of a process-based ecological model, Ecological Modelling, vol.265, issue.0, pp.265114-123, 2013.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.06.013

X. Song, B. A. Bryan, K. I. Paul, and G. Zhao, Variance-based sensitivity analysis of a forest growth model, Ecological Modelling, vol.247, issue.86, pp.135-143, 2012.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.08.005

S. Soubeyrand, L. Held, M. Höhle, and I. Sache, Modelling the spread in space and time of an airborne plant disease. The royal statistical society, Appl. Statist, vol.57, issue.3, pp.253-272, 2008.

S. Soubeyrand, A. Laine, I. Hanski, and A. Penttinen, Spatiotemporal structure of hostpathogen interactions in a metapopulation, The American Naturalist, vol.174, issue.3 7, 2009.

R. Stover, Sigatoka leaf spots of bananas and plantains, p.119, 1980.

G. Strona, A spatially explicit model to investigate how dispersal/colonization tradeoffs between short and long distance movement strategies affect species ranges, Ecological Modelling, vol.297, issue.0, pp.80-85, 2015.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.11.011

T. Sumner, E. Shephard, and I. D. Bogle, A methodology for global-sensitivity analysis of time-dependent outputs in systems biology modelling, Journal of The Royal Society Interface, vol.21, issue.1, pp.2156-2166, 2012.
DOI : 10.1006/rtph.1995.1024

M. A. Tanner and W. Wong, From EM to Data Augmentation: The Emergence of MCMC Bayesian Computation in the 1980s, Statistical Science, vol.25, issue.4, pp.506-516, 2010.
DOI : 10.1214/10-STS341

P. Tixier, E. Malezieux, and M. Dorel, SIMBA-POP: a cohort population model for long-term simulation of banana crop harvest, Ecological Modelling, vol.180, issue.2-3, pp.407-417, 2004.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.04.028

P. Tixier, J. Risède, M. Dorel, and E. Malézieux, Modelling population dynamics of banana plant-parasitic nematodes: A contribution to the design of sustainable cropping systems, Ecological Modelling, vol.198, issue.3-4, pp.198321-331, 2006.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.05.003

J. Vaillant, G. Puggioni, L. Waller, and J. Daugrois, A spatio-temporal analysis of the spread of suger cane yellow leaf virus Journal of time series analysis, p.164, 2010.

F. Van-den-berg, S. Gaucel, C. Lannou, C. A. Gilligan, and F. Van-den-bosch, High levels of auto-infection in plant pathogens favour short latent periods: a theoretical approach, Evolutionary Ecology, vol.18, issue.2, pp.409-428, 2013.
DOI : 10.1007/s10682-012-9602-2

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01190640

A. Van-maanen and X. Xu, Modelling plant disease epidemics, European Journal of Plant Pathology, vol.109, pp.669-682, 2003.
DOI : 10.1007/978-94-017-1452-5_2

H. Varella, M. Guérif, and S. Buis, Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) Measures the Quality of Parameter Estimation. Case of Soil Parameter Estimation with a Crop Model, IGARSS 2008, 2008 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, pp.310-319, 2010.
DOI : 10.1109/IGARSS.2008.4779531

C. Véra, Modèles linéaires mixtes multiphasiques pour l'analyse de données longitudinales - Application à la croissance des plantes, 2004.

J. Wang, X. Li, L. Lu, and F. Fang, Parameter sensitivity analysis of crop growth models based on the extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test method, Environmental Modelling & Software, vol.48, issue.85, pp.171-182, 2013.
DOI : 10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.06.007

L. Willocquet and S. Savary, An Epidemiological Simulation Model with Three Scales of Spatial Hierarchy, Phytopathology, vol.94, issue.8, pp.883-891, 2004.
DOI : 10.1094/PHYTO.2004.94.8.883

G. Zhao, B. A. Bryan, and X. Song, Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the APSIM-wheat model: Interactions between cultivar, environmental, and management parameters, Ecological Modelling, vol.279, pp.1-11, 2014.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.02.003